Hi
As promised, following is a few notes about the macro economic view of a few economists (Harry S Dent, Jerry A Webman, Steve Keen) with respect to demographic cycles.
The period 1982 to 2007 has been an economic anomolly with unprecedented levels of growth driven by the baby boomer generation reaching their maximum capacity to spend (46-50yrs)
Period has been termed "The Great Moderation" with unprecendented stability borne by federal monetary policy (particularly in US - think Greenspan and Bernacke) and the easy access to credit both commercially and as consumers
You can predict the likely spending patterns in any country by analysing the population
people do predictable things as they age
babies are the key to the future - they drive the economy through the changes in thier lifecycle
young people are inflationary, old people are deflationary
the generation cycle is 39-40 years
The world is facing a debt crisis (has anybody missed this message - think Eurozone ??)
As the consumer ages they are deleveraging - this is continuing. The government response is to stimulate the economy - this is not sustainable. These 2 things in combination do not paint a very rosy future
The baby boomers are thinking of their futures and restricting spending
This will continue to fuel the debt crisis
There is a 4 Season Economic Cycle that spans 80 years
1965 - 1983 Summer Stagflation
1983 - 2008 Autumn Bubbles flourish and burst (dot.com, real estate)
2012 - 2023 Winter Deflation
2023 - ........ Spring Inflation
Technology follows a similar cycle - new technology will arrive in the Winter
Characteristics of the Winter Season
Education is too complex
Companies are run from the bottom up
Most powerful period, but, also most challenging
Business will go under
Healthcare is complex
It is the season of Technology - as things get more difficult for businesses and individuals, innovation in technology will arrive to assist - it is human nature.
Healthcare is the industry of the future (as we talked about the last time we met)
Hmmmm - so what does all this mean? - There is a lot of bad stuff still to come in the next decade, but, as in all periods of time in the past, those who understand what is happen can prosper. Below are 2 links to the United Nations population projections database. Take a look at Australia, China and India (and the US if you must) - where is the maturing population? - where is the likely future prosperity - China or India??? - is Australia going to fare well?
http://esa.un.org/wpp/JS-Charts/aging-median-age_0.htm
http://esa.un.org/wpp/population-pyramids/population-pyramids.htm
Healthcare is the industry of the future - what opportunities are there that are game changers??
Winter is the season of technology innovation - again - what are the opportunities that are game changers??
Food for thought.
Cheers
As promised, following is a few notes about the macro economic view of a few economists (Harry S Dent, Jerry A Webman, Steve Keen) with respect to demographic cycles.
The period 1982 to 2007 has been an economic anomolly with unprecedented levels of growth driven by the baby boomer generation reaching their maximum capacity to spend (46-50yrs)
Period has been termed "The Great Moderation" with unprecendented stability borne by federal monetary policy (particularly in US - think Greenspan and Bernacke) and the easy access to credit both commercially and as consumers
You can predict the likely spending patterns in any country by analysing the population
people do predictable things as they age
babies are the key to the future - they drive the economy through the changes in thier lifecycle
young people are inflationary, old people are deflationary
the generation cycle is 39-40 years
The world is facing a debt crisis (has anybody missed this message - think Eurozone ??)
As the consumer ages they are deleveraging - this is continuing. The government response is to stimulate the economy - this is not sustainable. These 2 things in combination do not paint a very rosy future
The baby boomers are thinking of their futures and restricting spending
This will continue to fuel the debt crisis
There is a 4 Season Economic Cycle that spans 80 years
1965 - 1983 Summer Stagflation
1983 - 2008 Autumn Bubbles flourish and burst (dot.com, real estate)
2012 - 2023 Winter Deflation
2023 - ........ Spring Inflation
Technology follows a similar cycle - new technology will arrive in the Winter
Characteristics of the Winter Season
Education is too complex
Companies are run from the bottom up
Most powerful period, but, also most challenging
Business will go under
Healthcare is complex
It is the season of Technology - as things get more difficult for businesses and individuals, innovation in technology will arrive to assist - it is human nature.
Healthcare is the industry of the future (as we talked about the last time we met)
Hmmmm - so what does all this mean? - There is a lot of bad stuff still to come in the next decade, but, as in all periods of time in the past, those who understand what is happen can prosper. Below are 2 links to the United Nations population projections database. Take a look at Australia, China and India (and the US if you must) - where is the maturing population? - where is the likely future prosperity - China or India??? - is Australia going to fare well?
http://esa.un.org/wpp/JS-Charts/aging-median-age_0.htm
http://esa.un.org/wpp/population-pyramids/population-pyramids.htm
Healthcare is the industry of the future - what opportunities are there that are game changers??
Winter is the season of technology innovation - again - what are the opportunities that are game changers??
Food for thought.
Cheers
No comments:
Post a Comment